By Patrick Wingrove
LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) – Novo Nordisk shares slid as much as 9% on Monday as executives faced tough questions from analysts over the drugmaker’s pricing power and dealmaking strategy ahead of looming patent expiries.
Novo aims to launch more than five blockbuster drugs by 2030 and deliver more than 150 billion Danish crowns ($23 billion) in pipeline sales in 2035, CEO Mike Doustdar said at the drugmaker’s capital markets day in London.
The company is racing to reassure markets that it can navigate patent expirations for semaglutide — the active ingredient in its blockbuster anti-obesity drug Wegovy and diabetes medicine Ozempic — in the early 2030s.
The Danish drugmaker’s fortunes have reversed sharply since the 2021 arrival of Wegovy propelled its valuation above $600 billion. Novo shares have tumbled more than 70% from their record highs in the face of stiff competition from U.S. rival Eli Lilly.
NOVO FACES PRESSURE FROM GENERICS, NEW RIVALS
Lilly’s competing injection, Zepbound, is on track to outsell Wegovy by upwards of $7 billion this year, according to LSEG data.
Seeking to soothe market jitters, Novo last year started a cost-cutting drive, disclosing on Monday that staff departures have reached 13,000 following an initial 9,000 layoffs and 4,000 subsequent exits.
However, analysts on Monday pressed management on their pricing assumptions, questioning whether next-generation drugs can sustain premium price points once semaglutide loses exclusivity.
Markus Manns, a portfolio manager at investor Union Investment, told Reuters that Novo’s 2030 sales target, projecting only stable margins, was slightly underwhelming – if not a big surprise.
“Considering all the pressures Novo will be facing in the coming years such as biosimilars in Canada, Brazil and China and heavy competition starting in ’28 from Amgen, Pfizer etc, the guidance seems reasonable,” he said.
Novo shares recovered some early losses and were down 4.7% by 1124 GMT.
FOCUS ON M&A DEALS TO BOLSTER PIPELINE
Novo executives said the drugmaker’s balance sheet can support larger acquisitions rather than just small bolt-on deals and clarified that its over 150 billion crown target is based on internal, risk-adjusted assets and excludes any future M&A.
Management on Monday also detailed a multi-year rollout for the drugmaker’s next-generation obesity injectables, targeting a launch of its CagriSema combination early next year, followed by standalone cagrilintide and high-dose CagriSema in 2028, before advancing zenagamtide.
Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange said Novo now plans to launch oral and injectable zenagamtide simultaneously, rather than rolling out the shot first.
Doustdar said Novo aims to reach more than 60 million patients globally by 2030 and scale up manufacturing tenfold to supply 15 million patients with oral obesity therapies by the end of the decade.
Novo is also accelerating expansion of its portfolio of pills and aims to have at least five oral assets in clinical trials before the end of this year.
Doustdar said Novo’s oral Wegovy pill has achieved a record 7 million prescriptions in the U.S. to date, noting that 90% of those sales are flowing through direct cash-pay channels.
($1 = 6.5096 Danish crowns)
(Reporting by Patrick Wingrove, writing by Louise Rasmussen; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Barbara Lewis and Susan Fenton)
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