By James Oliphant
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The 2025 off-year elections in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City and California provided an early barometer of how some U.S. voters view President Donald Trump’s second term and the Democratic Party’s efforts to revive its political fortunes.
Here are some takeaways from election night:
A WAY FORWARD FOR DEMOCRATS?
New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger may have provided a blueprint for how Democrats can get their mojo back in next year’s congressional elections.
They have much in common. Each was first elected to Congress in 2018, during the midterms in Trump’s first term. This year, they both ran as problem-solving moderates with backgrounds in national security and laser-focused their campaigns on affordability issues while positioning themselves as bulwarks against Trump.
To a party starved for good news, Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, and Spanberger, an ex-CIA officer, provided it. While their wins were not huge surprises given that their states tend to support Democrats more than Republicans, their broad margins of victory may bolster the argument that their approach could work in next year’s midterms, when Democrats hope to wrest back control of Congress.
With votes still being counted, Sherrill appeared to have bested her opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, by a greater margin in New Jersey than Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris beat Trump there last year. There were also signs that Spanberger was outperforming Harris in Virginia.
Sherrill and Spanberger, along with New York mayoral winner Zohran Mamdani, promoted affordability as a central campaign theme.
Spanberger’s “Affordable Virginia” plan focused on lowering healthcare, housing and energy costs, and she vowed to make tech data centers to pay “their fair share” of electricity costs. Sherrill’s “Affordability Agenda” targeted similar concerns. She pledged to declare a statewide energy emergency and freeze electricity rates.
Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist, said that while it’s always tricky to determine how off-year election results might play in the next year’s midterms, Democrats can take some lessons away from Tuesday.
“If Trump keeps taking a sledgehammer to people’s pocketbooks, that is an easy thing for Democrats to run on,” Payne said.
THE LIMITS OF MAGA
Spanberger’s decisive victory in Virginia may also illustrate the limits of Trump’s MAGA movement.
Spanberger’s opponent, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor, has been a strong supporter of Trump’s agenda, including the move to slash thousands of federal jobs, Trump’s support for the federal government shutdown and his imposition of heavy tariffs on imports. In TV ads and public remarks, Spanberger tried to tie Earle-Sears to Trump at every turn.
Spanberger, meanwhile, was buoyed by running in a state that is highly dependent on federal jobs and at a time when voters nationwide cited the cost of living as their number one concern, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll said.
“Virginia chose pragmatism over partisanship,” Spanberger told supporters after she was declared the winner. As if to back up her words, she sported a red suit jacket, the color most closely associated with Republicans, rather than Democratic blue.
THE TRUMP FACTOR
Though he wasn’t on the ballot, Trump’s influence was inescapable on Tuesday.
The elections took place as the president’s approval rating dipped to the lowest point so far during his second term, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling, with voters zeroing in on affordability concerns.
In the Virginia governor’s race, of the 36% of voters who said opposing Trump was a factor in their vote, 98% came out for Spanberger, according to the SSRS Voter Poll, conducted for a consortium of U.S. networks and the Associated Press. It was a similar story in the contest for New Jersey governor, where 39% of voters said opposing Trump played a role in their vote. They overwhelmingly voted for Democrat Mikie Sherrill.
In September, Sherrill said of her Republican rival Jack Ciattarelli: “He’ll do whatever Trump tells him to do,” while she pledged she would “fight anybody to work for you.”
Throughout his political career, Trump has shown a limited ability to transfer his popularity to other Republican candidates. Ciattarelli and Earle-Sears found that out on Tuesday.
(Reporting by James Oliphant; additional reporting by Jason Lange and Bo Erickson; editing by Scott Malone and Leslie Adler)
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